I know this is nitpicking, but you can’t raise up a distribution as shown in your plot. Probability distributions need to integrate to 1, by raising the density at every point it will now integrate to more than 1. What you are describing is that the distribution stays the same, but the proliferation of the indie game industry means that more games are being drawn from this distribution per unit of time.
It's not meant to be a probability distribution! The graph is "(absolute) number of games" vs "quality". But I agree that using the term "distribution" is a bit confusing
Fair enough! I shouldn’t have pointed out the plot, it was the wording in the paragraph above that was weird to me.
Overall, excellent article! I’m in the middle of a PhD which is the definition of learning arcane shit, so trying to figure out how to reposition for the coming AI wave is very important to me.
I agree with the general ideas expressed here. The big boom in productivity and lowering the barrier to entry likely will result in at least some job loss. I think the example related to programmers is a bit contrived, given that it’s normal that as people move up the ladder, they write fewer lines of code. But, these smart, talented senior types will now be able to crank out more projects than they ever could have conceived of, without needing the help of junior engineers to do the grunt work.
I think the exact reason for a reduction in labor demand will be hard to predict, but the out come seems likely
in case it matters, i personally feel like ive seen:
- more startups that are going lean, hiring fewer engineers to do more with them
- more tech companies that are drastically reducing headcount, both with rolling layoffs (cf meta, google) and with fewer offers at junior positions
Neither of these are proof positive, but I mention this just bc the example with programmers was not meant to be contrived. It's based on real conversations I've heard or been part of
Firstly, I think with startups it’s likely the case that more tenured and experienced engineers do code more and therefore benefit more directly from AI usage, so this makes sense.
For medium sized and big tech, it’s hard to disentangle shareholder signaling from productivity boosts insofar as lower headcount goes, but I take your point.
I really enjoyed the article, and must say I’ve been in the same place. I cannot stop thinking and reading about this topic. I am still at the point where I have not formed a conclusion on what I think might happen, but I am starting to trend towards “productivity gains will increase, positions will likely go down, but there could also be new jobs and new companies which could increase labor demand.”
I am living my life as if it were true that my employment opportunities will be worse in the future than they are now, but am not going to do something as drastic as quitting my job and moving to Alaska, until it makes sense to do so ;)
Thank you for the article! Useful examples from history.
I know this is nitpicking, but you can’t raise up a distribution as shown in your plot. Probability distributions need to integrate to 1, by raising the density at every point it will now integrate to more than 1. What you are describing is that the distribution stays the same, but the proliferation of the indie game industry means that more games are being drawn from this distribution per unit of time.
It's not meant to be a probability distribution! The graph is "(absolute) number of games" vs "quality". But I agree that using the term "distribution" is a bit confusing
Fair enough! I shouldn’t have pointed out the plot, it was the wording in the paragraph above that was weird to me.
Overall, excellent article! I’m in the middle of a PhD which is the definition of learning arcane shit, so trying to figure out how to reposition for the coming AI wave is very important to me.
I agree with the general ideas expressed here. The big boom in productivity and lowering the barrier to entry likely will result in at least some job loss. I think the example related to programmers is a bit contrived, given that it’s normal that as people move up the ladder, they write fewer lines of code. But, these smart, talented senior types will now be able to crank out more projects than they ever could have conceived of, without needing the help of junior engineers to do the grunt work.
I think the exact reason for a reduction in labor demand will be hard to predict, but the out come seems likely
in case it matters, i personally feel like ive seen:
- more startups that are going lean, hiring fewer engineers to do more with them
- more tech companies that are drastically reducing headcount, both with rolling layoffs (cf meta, google) and with fewer offers at junior positions
Neither of these are proof positive, but I mention this just bc the example with programmers was not meant to be contrived. It's based on real conversations I've heard or been part of
Firstly, I think with startups it’s likely the case that more tenured and experienced engineers do code more and therefore benefit more directly from AI usage, so this makes sense.
For medium sized and big tech, it’s hard to disentangle shareholder signaling from productivity boosts insofar as lower headcount goes, but I take your point.
I really enjoyed the article, and must say I’ve been in the same place. I cannot stop thinking and reading about this topic. I am still at the point where I have not formed a conclusion on what I think might happen, but I am starting to trend towards “productivity gains will increase, positions will likely go down, but there could also be new jobs and new companies which could increase labor demand.”
I am living my life as if it were true that my employment opportunities will be worse in the future than they are now, but am not going to do something as drastic as quitting my job and moving to Alaska, until it makes sense to do so ;)
I’ll give you a follow, cheers!
> but there could also be new jobs and new companies which could increase labor demand
high agency high talent people will definitely benefit! So if that's you, great, and if not, try and become one of those people!
Appreciate the follow :)